Focus: Price Drivers & Key Regional Markets

Date of issue: 2 December 2025

Period covered: November 2025

1. Scope & Methodology

This report provides an objective summary of market conditions in November 2025 relevant to steel abrasives (cast steel shot, cast steel grit, stainless steel shot and conditioned cut wire).

Because there is no dedicated global price index for steel abrasives, price assessments in this report are based on:

• Movements in scrap steel and flat steel (HRC) benchmarks;
• Trends in ocean freight rates on key trade lanes (Asia–Europe, Asia–US);
• Exchange rate developments for RMB vs USD/EUR;
• Global and regional steel demand indicators from the World Steel Association and other industry sources;
• Publicly available commentary on regional markets (US, Turkey, etc.).

Steel abrasives pricing typically follows steel scrap and HRC trends with a lag, adjusted for energy, labour, packaging and logistics costs. All conclusions below are descriptive, not prescriptive, and do not constitute any specific commercial offer or quotation.

2. Global Price Trends & Cost Drivers

2.1 Benchmark Price Movement

In November 2025, underlying steel input prices moved moderately higher, creating mild upward cost pressure for steel abrasives producers:

• International scrap steel benchmarks traded around USD 355–360/t, up roughly 2–3% month on month, but still slightly below levels of one year ago.
• Hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices increased more strongly: reference prices reached around USD 900–910/t by late November, implying a 6–7% rise over the month and close to 30% year-on-year gains.

Given these inputs, steel abrasives production costs in November were modestly higher than in October, but not to a degree that would force immediate, across-the-board list price increases in most markets. Many producers appear to be absorbing part of the cost rise or adjusting prices selectively.

2.2 Raw Material Costs

From the perspective of a China-based producer, the two most important variable cost drivers for steel abrasives in November 2025 were:

• Domestic steel scrap prices, and
• Industrial electricity tariffs.

2.2.1 Domestic steel scrap prices

Mysteel data indicate that China’s national composite steel scrap price moved slightly lower over November, confirming earlier expectations that prices would weaken under softer demand and reduced mill buying interest.

• At the end of October, Mysteel assessed the national composite steel scrap price at about RMB 2,442/tonne (including 13% VAT), essentially unchanged from September.
• By mid-November, the same composite price had eased to roughly RMB 2,420/tonne, reflecting weaker demand from steelmakers and lower finished-steel prices.
• On 21 November, Mysteel’s weekly assessment put the national scrap price at around RMB 2,418/tonne, only marginally below the mid-month level but still confirming a gentle downward trend.

In absolute terms, this implies a month-on-month decline of roughly 1% in the national composite scrap price from late October to late November. For scrap-based steel abrasives producers, this slight easing of scrap prices provided limited cost relief, partly offsetting upward pressure coming from other parts of the steel value chain.

Overall, China’s steel scrap market in November 2025 can be described as slightly weak but orderly: prices softened in response to reduced mill demand and tighter margins, but there was no sharp collapse or supply shock.

2.2.2 Industrial electricity tariffs

For steel abrasives production, electricity is a significant but generally smaller cost component than scrap. In 2025, China’s industrial power tariffs remained internationally competitive and relatively stable, without major nationwide hikes during Q4.

• A recent overview of China’s industrial power rates estimates the average industrial electricity price at about USD 0.088/kWh in 2024, still lower than in many other manufacturing countries.
• Another global comparison puts China’s business (industrial/commercial) electricity price at around CNY 0.794 per kWh (≈ USD 0.112) as of March 2025, including taxes and grid charges.
• City-level data for 35 kV and above industrial users show typical tariffs in October 2025 around RMB 0.54–0.62/kWh in representative inland cities such as Chengdu and Chongqing, within a historical range between RMB 0.46 and 0.79/kWh over the last two years.

These indicators suggest that industrial electricity tariffs in China during November 2025 were broadly stable, with only routine regional variations and no evidence of a sharp, policy-driven spike.

For a Chinese steel abrasives producer, the combined effect in November 2025 was therefore:

• Steel scrap: slightly lower prices, offering modest cost relief;
• Electricity: stable tariffs, acting as a steady background cost with no new shock.

Taken together, raw material and power costs in China exerted only mild downward or neutral pressure on the overall cost base for steel abrasives in November. The main pricing tension in the market thus remained a balance between this slight cost easing and soft but stabilising demand, rather than any abrupt change in fundamental production costs.

2.3 Energy & Environmental Policy Impact (China Focus)

From a China-based producer’s perspective, energy and environmental policies in November 2025 had a limited but visible impact on steel abrasives costs, mainly through their influence on upstream steel supply and prices, rather than via sudden changes in tariffs.

• Industrial energy costs:

Industrial electricity and natural gas prices in China did not experience sharp shocks during November. Adjustments were incremental rather than structural, and there were no major nationwide power-tariff hikes affecting Q4 2025. For most steel abrasives plants, energy remained a stable background cost.

• Environmental inspections and production discipline:

China continues to constrain crude steel output and prune overcapacity as part of its emissions and industry-upgrading strategy. In October and November, many steel mills curbed production amid weak construction demand and shrinking margins, with environmental pressures cited among the reasons for lower operating rates.

Routine environmental inspections in specific regions led to localised and short-term disruptions, especially for some flat-steel producers, and contributed to slightly firmer domestic HRC prices despite soft demand.

For steel abrasives producers, this means that in November:

• There was no abrupt cost shock from energy pricing itself;
• Environmental policy and production discipline mainly acted as a gentle tightening force on upstream steel supply, putting mild upward pressure on HRC and related inputs, but not enough to trigger a step-change in overall cost.

Overall, energy and environmental policy in China in November 2025 can be characterised as neutral to mildly supportive for costs—helping to prevent deep steel price declines, but not creating a strong new cost push on abrasives producers.

2.4 Logistics & Exchange Rates (China Focus)

For a Chinese exporter of steel abrasives, container freight rates and the RMB exchange rate are key determinants of landed cost in overseas markets. In November 2025, both factors moved within relatively narrow ranges, creating only moderate changes to overall export cost structures.

• Ocean freight from Chinese ports:

Composite indicators suggest that export freight rates from major Chinese ports were broadly stable in November. Some Europe-bound lanes showed mild Q4 seasonal firming, while other routes—particularly where vessel overcapacity is an issue—saw slight downward pressure as carriers adjusted capacity and pricing.
For most typical FOB Qingdao steel abrasives shipments, freight quotes remained within the recent trading band, meaning that the FOB-to-CFR gap did not change dramatically during the month.

• RMB exchange rate:

The USD/CNY rate in November traded in a narrow corridor roughly between 7.08 and 7.13, with daily closes towards the end of the month around 7.07–7.10. Compared with mid-year levels above 7.20, the RMB has appreciated modestly.

For exporters pricing in USD or EUR, this slightly reduces RMB-denominated margins if foreign-currency prices remain unchanged. However, the scale of appreciation is limited, and the exchange rate remains in a relatively stable, policy-managed band.

Combining logistics and FX:

• Freight: stable on average, with only route-specific adjustments;
• FX: a somewhat stronger RMB creates mild margin pressure, but within manageable bounds.

As a result, logistics and exchange-rate developments in November 2025 exerted only a mild, net-neutral to slightly negative effect on Chinese steel abrasives exporters’ margins, and did not fundamentally change end-user pricing in most markets.

2.5 Demand-Side Factors by Segment

Global steel demand in 2025 is estimated to be broadly flat vs. 2024 (≈1.75 billion tonnes), with a modest rebound projected for 2026. This implies that blasting and peening media demand is stabilising, rather than experiencing strong growth.

By segment:

• Shipbuilding & steel structures

Public and private infrastructure spending is supporting stable consumption of structural steel in many regions. This helps maintain steady demand for steel shot and grit used in plate and profile blasting.

• Foundries & castings

Foundry activity is mixed: some regions show gradual recovery, while others report weak orders linked to softer machinery and equipment exports. Purchasers remain price-sensitive, often focusing on cost-per-m² or cost-per-component rather than volume expansion.

• Automotive & machinery

Global manufacturing still faces elevated production costs and weak final demand in some markets, limiting aggressive restocking of abrasives.

• Stainless & aluminum finishing

Demand for stainless and non-ferrous components (including 300/400-series stainless, aluminium castings and extrusions) is stable to mildly improving in certain export-oriented economies (e.g. India, Vietnam). This supports steady usage of stainless steel shot and conditioned cut wire in those niches.

In summary, demand conditions in November were not strong enough to justify aggressive price hikes, but they helped prevent deeper price cuts, especially for standard carbon steel shot and grit.

3. Key Regional Market Overview

3.1 Europe

• Demand:

The European steel market is in a bottoming phase, with expectations of modest demand growth resuming in 2026, supported by infrastructure and defence spending. In November, steel abrasives consumption can be characterised as “stable but cautious.”

• Applications:

Shipyards, steel fabricators and bridge / structural workshops continued to use steady volumes, while some foundries reported soft orders due to subdued exports of machinery and components.

• Pricing & behaviour:

Local prices for high-carbon cast steel shot and grit were largely unchanged vs. October, with small downward adjustments in highly competitive tenders. Buyers tended to place smaller, more frequent orders and remained focused on inventory control, rather than locking in long-term contracts.

3.2 Asia-Pacific

The Asia-Pacific region showed divergent trends:

• China

Overall steel demand in China is still gradually declining, mainly due to the property-sector downturn, although the pace of decline is slowing. This means no strong pull for incremental steel abrasives volume from domestic heavy industry.

• India & fast-growing developing markets

India remains a bright spot, with steel demand growth projected around 9% over 2025–26, supported by infrastructure and manufacturing. This underpins healthy blasting media demand, particularly for construction steel, pipes and fabrication. Some ASEAN countries (e.g. Vietnam) also show solid growth, linked to export-oriented manufacturing.

• Japan & Korea

Steel demand is forecast to stay subdued, and abrasives usage reflects this, with stable but unspectacular consumption.

Price competition remains intense in Southeast Asia, where users frequently compare local vs imported abrasives and are highly sensitive even to small price differences on standard grades.

3.3 Middle East & Africa

• Demand:

Several MENA countries (notably Saudi Arabia and Egypt) are among the growth drivers for developing-world steel demand, tied to large-scale infrastructure and industrial projects. This translates into solid underlying demand for steel abrasives used in construction steel, tanks, pipelines and fabrication.

• Market behaviour:

Buyers in this region generally continue to value reliable quality and supply continuity, but are sensitive to freight and lead time due to their distance from major exporting hubs. November’s slightly softer freight rates offered some relief to landed costs.

3.4 Americas

• North America

US steel demand is expected to rebound modestly in 2025, supported by infrastructure spending and anticipated policy changes. November saw steady, but not booming, abrasives consumption, with many users still cautious in their restocking. Ferrous scrap trends indicate a balanced market, which helps limit volatility in steel abrasives pricing.

• Central & South America

The region is projected to achieve around 5.5% steel demand growth in 2025, driven by a rebound in Argentina and steady growth in Brazil. However, from a longer-term perspective, demand is still below 2013 levels, reflecting structural de-industrialisation. Currency fluctuations in some countries continue to influence purchasing timing, with non-urgent abrasives purchases sometimes delayed when local currencies weaken.

4. Short-Term Outlook (December 2025 – January 2026)

Bringing the above factors together:

• Raw materials:

Scrap and HRC prices ended November higher than at the start of the month, but not at extreme levels. Unless there is a sharp further rise, they are likely to exert moderate upward cost pressure rather than trigger immediate, large price moves.

• Logistics:

Container freight indices have softened slightly, especially on Transpacific routes, and Asia–Europe rates remain relatively stable. This helps partially offset steel cost increases in export markets.

• Demand:

Global steel demand is stabilising, with growth concentrated in developing economies such as India, parts of ASEAN, MENA and Africa, while developed markets are near the bottom of the cycle.

• Exchange rates:

A somewhat stronger RMB vs USD/EUR exerts mild pressure on Chinese exporters’ margins, but movements so far are not dramatic.

Base case (no major shocks):

• Steel abrasives prices in most regions are likely to remain within a narrow band over the next 1–2 months.
• Where adjustments occur, they are expected to be small and selective – for example, slight upward revisions for grades most exposed to rising steel input costs, or promotional discounts in highly competitive local markets.
• Regional differences will mainly reflect local demand strength (e.g. stronger in India / MENA, softer in some parts of Europe and Asia) and currency movements, rather than a global wave of price increases or decreases.

This concludes the November 2025 steel abrasives market overview.

The report is intended solely as a neutral summary of public market information and does not constitute a price quotation, commercial offer, or investment recommendation.